No. 07 Errors of Generalization
Anecdotal Fallacy
In Turkish: Kişisel Örnek Safsatası
It worked for Hatice. Hatice is one person.
Boil this herb and drink it. Hatice’s knee was fine in a week.
If it fixed Hatice’s knee it’ll fix mine! Who needs a doctor!
Hatice is one person. The ones it didn’t work for, Hatice doesn’t tell you about.
What is it?
Using something that happened to one person as if it were proof about everyone. A story is vivid and numbers are dull, but the numbers describe a thousand people and the story describes one.
The pattern
- Someone I know did X and Y happened.
- Therefore X causes Y. (Or: therefore you should do X.)
Why it fails
A single case can’t tell coincidence from cause. If Hatice’s knee got better, maybe it was the herb, maybe the rest, maybe it would have healed anyway. And the person telling the story is always the one it worked for; the people it didn’t work for don’t tell stories. That’s why anecdotes always look like successes.
How to spot it
- It starts with “someone I know”, “my grandad”, “the neighbour’s son”.
- The evidence is a story: vivid, detailed, and singular.
- The cases where it didn’t work never come up.
What to say
“Nice, it helped Hatice. How many people did it help, and how many didn’t it?” Then add your own story: “My aunt drank it too, nothing happened.” Two anecdotes cancel out; what’s left is the numbers.
When it’s not a fallacy
One example is enough to say “this is possible”: a single flying fish proves fish can fly. Where it falls short is “this usually happens” or “it’ll happen to you”. An anecdote is where an investigation starts, not where it ends.
Examples
- Health“My grandad smoked two packs a day and died at ninety-five.” Grandad’s lungs are not a statistic.
- Family“My cousin never vaccinated her kid and he’s healthy as a horse.” One kid, one cousin, one coincidence.
- Work“I dropped out of school, opened a shop and made money.” The dropouts who didn’t make money don’t buy ads.
- Shopping“I’ve had three phones from this brand and none ever broke.” Three phones; the brand sells millions.